Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in a closely fought battle to win the popular vote in November’s presidential election, with the Republican firebrand enjoying an advantage in key swing states. Both candidates became their respective parties’ presumptive presidential nominees following a series of primary victories in March. The 2024 contest is expected to be exceptionally bitter, as both have accused each other of representing a threat to American democracy.
An Emerson College poll put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49.
Between March 29 and 31, The Trafalgar Group polled 1,092 likely voters, giving Trump a roughly three-point lead with the former president on 43.1% of the vote against 39.8 percent for Biden. However, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger. A series of polls conducted in seven swing states by The Wall Street Journal put Trump ahead in six, with the presidential rivals tied in the seventh.
Polymarket, an online prediction platform, gives Biden a 44% chance of victory in November, a big improvement from February 25 when the Republican was given a 54% chance versus 33% for Biden. Trump’s bid for a second White House term could be complicated by the four criminal trials he is due to face.